The “Sunk Cost” Trap: Why It Is Hard to Stop After a Loss and How to Stay in Control
Imagine you are waiting for a bus. You have already waited for 30 minutes, but it has not arrived. You are worried you will be
Why Lessons Only Appear When They Are Over
Have you ever gone through a very hard time in your life? Maybe you lost a job, a relationship ended, or you failed at a
Why Experience Does Not Eliminate Risk Bias
Experience is often treated as a cure for poor judgment. The assumption is that with time and repeated exposure, people learn restraint, accuracy, and realism.
Why Humans Expect Balance in Random Sequences
When people encounter random outcomes, they instinctively expect balance. Wins should offset losses. High results should be followed by low ones. Over time, things are
Why Confidence Grows Faster Than Understanding
Confidence often arrives early. Understanding takes time. In systems built around repeated decisions, constant feedback, and persistent uncertainty, this gap becomes especially visible. People grow
When Efficient Systems Feel Unfair
Efficient systems are designed to operate quickly and consistently. Information moves fast, responses converge, and outcomes reflect signals with minimal delay. From a technical standpoint,
Why Winning Is a Poor Measure of Performance
Winning feels definitive. It has closure, relief, and a clean narrative of success. When an outcome goes our way, it is natural to assume we
What Odds Actually Mean (and What They Do Not)
Odds are commonly treated as predictions. The numbers appear to signal what will happen next, how likely an outcome is, or which side is “right.”
Why Probability Figures Feel Like Predictions — but Are Not
Probability figures often feel like predictions. When people see a numerical likelihood attached to an outcome, they instinctively interpret it as a statement about what
How Decimal Odds and Fractional Odds Actually Communicate Risk
Decimal odds and fractional odds are often described as two different ways of expressing the same information. Technically, this is correct. Both formats quantify the